Egypt . . . China . . . history

First of all, congratulations to all Egyptians and free democracies everywhere. Your voices have been heard and your example empowers all of us who are so fortunate as to live free societies.

I can’t help but look at pictures of the battered but defiant Egyptian protesters at Tahriri square and feel inspired. Their almost blind passion for change is uplifting, thought-provoking and energizes me to the core. It makes me think about the history of my own people and how much I would have loved living during the 1920s and 1940s when China itself was awash with a similar fervor for change. It is all I can do not to compare and speculate about whether Egypt’s uprising will lead to a butterfly effect in China. Below are some links to others thoughts about this topic.

http://www.roubini.com/emergingmarkets-monitor/260489/china__egypt_and_democracy

What has been missing in the discussion for me is the cooptation of China’s elite. I remember having a discussion about a fairly obvious topic whether Taiwan was a part of China with one of my bschool friends and feeling absolutely shocked when she answered unblinking “Of course Taiwan is a part of China and of course it is still a big deal in the minds of all Chinese”. This well educated, new “elite” in China does not care to deviate from the party line and is well appeased by her job at a major consultancy in China, her parties, clubs.

However, this same person may be encountering some turbulence on their flight. The average Chinese in their 20s and 30s within 10 years will be taking care of their aging parents in addition to grandparents as well as paying for what will inevitably be a state led creation of a safety net in China. What will this person think then? Will the winds of Egypt take that long to blow to China’s shores in this age of Facebook/Twitter/Google censorship notwithstanding?